Trading Hub v2

Your Calibration Track Record

The /audit page measures the engine's calibration. This page measures yours. Every pre-mortem you record (Ctrl/Cmd+Shift+P) captures your stated confidence; at horizon-end you resolve it. Patterns surface here — over time we learn whether your gut is calibrated, where it wins, where it doesn't.

Headline

Resolved decisions
Pending review
Calibration score
95% CI
Brier score
Pattern

Calibration curve — your confidence vs reality

Each bar is a confidence bucket (0-10%, 10-20%, …). Bar height = realized hit rate. Dashed line = perfect calibration. Bars below the line = overconfident; above = underconfident.

By engine tier

Where your confidence lines up best/worst with reality.

TiernHit rateMean conf.Bias

By asset class

Where your judgment is calibrated, where it isn't.

ClassnHit rateMean conf.Bias

You vs the engine

Across decisions where you and the engine had a stated probability, who's been right more often? Use disagreements as research prompts; defer to whichever historically wins per cohort.

Paired decisions
Agreement rate
95% CI
You correct
95% CI
Engine correct
95% CI
TiernAgreementYou only rightEngine only right

Common wins

    Common mistakes